Stephen Z(美国) 发表于 2011-11-30 23:08:38

许小年论中国向市场经济转型(一)

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<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN></SPAN></B></FONT>&nbsp;</P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>真正的悲剧还没有上演</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>希腊</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>破产</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>了,没事,还有欧洲诸国可以救援;欧洲</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>破产</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>了,没事,还有美国可以救援;美国</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>破产</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>了,没事,还有中国可以救援;中国</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>破产</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>了,没事,我们还有上帝。。。 我们应该感到欣慰,在这一条传导链上,中国处在最后一环;</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'" lang=ZH-CN> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>但也可能感到绝望,因为俺们一旦</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>出事</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>,只有上帝能够拯救。。 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2008</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年至今,刚刚好三个年头,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2009</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年全面复苏,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2010</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年欧债危机愈演愈烈,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2011</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年美债面临爆顶,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2012</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年不用猜,你知道我在预言什么。。。 为什么会这样?</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'" lang=ZH-CN> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>难道这一定是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>结局</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>? 过去三年的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>努力</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>都只是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>垂死</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>前的挣扎?</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>早在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2009</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年,我曾经预见到这一天的来临。不是因为我可以未卜先知,而是根据历史</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>经验</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的推导</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>《</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>知易行难</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>注定是货币政策毕竟困境》一文中这样表述,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>有限的历史告诉我们</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>凯恩斯牌机车只善于高速行驶如果你不够油坚持到高速公路下口而想减速,后果可能比想象中要严重许多。除此以外,我们还能够得到一些启示</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>不要被经济暂时好转的迹象所迷惑。不要认为自己会比</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1936</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年美国、</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1977</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年的日本更聪明好运。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>无知者无畏,他们总是认为自己与众不同。历史会告诉他们,生活中并没有那么多奇迹。 今天,希腊也好,欧洲诸国也罢,包括美国在内,他们的凯恩斯牌机车邮箱已经报警</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">(</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>堆积如山的债务消耗了所有动力</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。至于中国,压根就没有</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>油量提示</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>这块仪表盘。 经过三年的高速行驶,邮箱空空,哪怕</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>空中加油</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>也只能缓一时,而无法救一世。这一幕恍如当年美国、日本的政客们所遭遇的悲剧</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在一年紧跟一年的巨额开支之后,日本的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>管理者们</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>对于大幅增长的财政赤字皱起了眉头,开始选择快速缩减开支。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1936</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年罗斯福也遭遇了同样的问题。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>无论当时,还是现在,无论是从执政者的角度,还是一般民众,都不会反对削减债务,这个决策看上去仍然是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>既合情又合理的做法</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。可是,缩支和增税行为一旦开始,经济恍如被戳破的气球,好势头顿时烟消云散。信不信历史会重演?走着瞧!</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">(</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>反正我是信了</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">)<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>希腊债务已经出现</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>技术新违约</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>美国债务也面临着走向</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>技术新违约</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的局面。除了缩支和增税,还有别的出路吗? 答案是,没有! 或许,你会说,中国经济不是早在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2010</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年就进入了</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>紧缩通道</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>吗?没看到你说的悲剧上演啊?我的回答是,中国是最后一环,中国的财税收入傲视全球,中国的货币政策从来就没有过</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>不宽松</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>,只是由极度宽松回到适度宽松而已。 所以,真正的悲剧远还没有上演。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p><FONT size=3>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>选择凯恩斯,只是因为相机抉择所迫</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>过去两年,我一直在思索一个问题,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>凯恩斯困境</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>如何破解?近几十年,货币学家</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>当道</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>,凯恩斯主义成为各国政府破解经济困局的唯一</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>法术</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”---</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>试图通过强化货币供给,刺激全方位的消费需求,从而激活陷入衰退的实体经济。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>从现象上看,凯恩斯主义只是完成了</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>家庭债务</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>向</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>国家债务</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的转移,并没有起到可持续拉动消费的实质作用。问题是,凯恩斯主义本身存在极限,即国家债务的承受上限。比如希腊,一个</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">440</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>万人口的小国,全国总负债竟然达到</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">3400</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>亿欧元。比如美国,债务上限的提升频率逐年加快,美联储、中国、日本一旦有一个</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>供血机</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>出现故障,崩溃不可避免。凯恩斯主义到底干了些什么?</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>从本质上看,他只是财务技巧</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>债务展期的一种方式而已。换句话说,庞大的债务从来没有消失,也不可能彻底消失。只是从一个显眼的地方转移到另外一个地方而已,进而为迎来</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>希望中的复苏</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>争取宝贵的时间。所以,主权债务危机只是凯恩斯主义的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>副产品</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”---</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>债务腾挪后的必然结果。 那么,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>凯恩斯困境</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>如何破解?</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>凯恩斯主义并不是终极办法,它只是争取时间的一种财务手段。在有限的时间里,我们将希望寄托于实体经济的总需求出现奇迹般的扩张。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>不过,从人类经济发展的视野去砍需求创造的可行途径,历史告诉我们,除了战争和技术革命,没有第三种方法可以让实体经济的总需求出现自然扩张。 战争,毁灭与重生叠加在一起,它将创造旧模式下的需求扩张,且有可持续性;技术革命,毁灭和创造同样叠加在一起,它将破除旧模式创造新模式下的需求替代,同样具有可持续性。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>货币学家认为,提高</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><A href="http://app.finance.ifeng.com/data/mac/month_idx.php?type=015" target=_blank><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #004276; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>货币供应</SPAN></B></A></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>量也可以刺激需求出发经济循环开始运转,我认为这是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>试错</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。在过去几十年,从未有成功的案例,上世纪大萧条的美国?如果没有二次世界大战的爆发,我并不认为美国经济能够走出低谷。罗斯福不是救世主,将美国从衰退的泥潭中拖出来的是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>二战</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>,而几十年后的日本没有这样的好运气。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>难道,各国政治家们都没有我聪明?不知道凯恩斯主义的弊病?我相信,我应该是最蠢的那一个。 我并不认为政治家们如此统一的愚笨,从策略而言,最差的选择不是错误的决定,而是没有决定。所以,政治家们选择凯恩斯,只是相机抉择所迫。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>简单来说,不选择凯恩斯主义,等于没有选择,这是一国政府无法接受的结果。凯恩斯主义是唯一应对大萧条的可选项。战争?技术革命?都不是可以</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>人为</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>推动的选项。所以,凯恩斯主义并不是最差的选择</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>至少它争取了宝贵的时间。 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>很遗憾,我并非伟人,除了翻翻历史书,实在想不到创造性破解</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>凯恩斯困境</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的办法,除了战争与技术革命。不过,如果真的有一个伟大的办法出现,却是很容易鉴别</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>它必须能够实现实体经济总需求的自然扩张,无论是毁灭还是替代。 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>想起了中学课本描写资本主义的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>罪恶</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>行径</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>资本主义国家的农场主宁可将大量牛奶倒入河中而不送给穷人喝,太没良心,唯利是图。现在终于明白,他们一点都不愚蠢,幼稚的是那时的我。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">(</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>上个世纪</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">30</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年代经济大萧条时出现许多农场主因获利低微和市场滞销而把大量牛奶倒入河中</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">)</SPAN></FONT><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p><FONT size=3>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>实用主义才是中国经济的</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>真面目</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>如果永远到不了终点,时速再快也没有意义。高铁如此,中国经济亦是如此。 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>有效率</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的经济增长,我们谈了多少年,已经记不起了。直到今天,终于为了</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>安全</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>,我们必须</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>降速</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>行驶。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>中国经济的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>显性</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>问题异常明显</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">-</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>依靠宽松货币拉动投资,推动经济高速行驶所引发的成本</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">(</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>人力、物力、环境</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>上升、通胀上升已经到了忍耐极限。这一套组合策略的边际利润已经下降至零。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>中国经济的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>隐形</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>问题同样突出</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>社火贫富差距不断扩大、地方债务堆积如山、围绕房地产所凝聚的利益集团势力庞大、金融风险由表内可控向表外不可控演变。重新建立更均衡的财富分配机制迫在眉睫。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>幸运的是,我们拥有庞大的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><A href="http://finance.ifeng.com/forex" target=_blank><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #004276; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>外汇</SPAN></B></A></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>储备,我们拥有庞大的居民储蓄,我们拥有庞大的金融市场,我们拥有严苛的税收制度,即使多米诺骨牌最终推倒到中国,我们依然有足够的回旋空间,只要我们下决心做一些改变。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>穷则思变</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>,倘若预料之中的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>悲剧</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>能够让中国在经济体制改革与政治体制改革产生</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>共鸣</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>,那么,悲剧结尾将会演变为一场喜剧收场。 这并非绝无可能。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>过去三十年,中国经济</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>最奇特</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的部分,不是所谓</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>中国模式</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>,而是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>没有模式</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。以五年为一节点,不难发现,这个神奇的国度总能找到正确方向,不至于迷失在某一次危机中。多数分析人士大跌眼镜的原因,莫过于错误估计了中国经济</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>转身</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的速度。它一点都不像一个超级大国,从来没有一个固定的发展模式,在每一寸土地上,繁荣都在野蛮的生长,涂满了实用主义的痕迹。这与政策制定者的智慧有关。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>讲一个小故事。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1937</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>月,钱塘江大桥开通,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">12</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>月,日军逼近杭州必须炸桥。茅以升说只炸桥面不炸桥墩的话敌人几天就能修好。工兵说桥墩没法放炸药。茅以升随后说出的话吓死小兵:建桥时就预计要炸,我在第二个桥墩专门为你们设计了放炸药的方洞。炸药在桥开通前一天就放好了。在中国,尤其是基层,处处显露这这种</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>转身</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>智慧。张五常老先生也曾为基层干部能灵活解决经济难题而拍手叫绝。为什么会存在这样的智慧?</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>因为,中国经济发展实在太快,快到任何模式都只能</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>正确</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>一小段时间;因为,中国环境复杂,各地点不一,基层干部必须尝试不同的策略方法来不断刺激经济发展,并没有一个长期贯彻的政策制度可供实施。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>讲这么多,是要说明一点:市场亢奋时要记得风险,市场绝望时要看到希望。 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>回顾历史,再大风浪我们都经历过,对中国经济的信心,是中国价值投资的重要前提。信心来自于对中国经济的深入了解,这需要充分的时间观察,而不是凭借表象累计而匆忙进行的判断。既要看到中国经济羸弱的一面,也要看到中国经济顽强的一面。不走极端,永远都有必要。中国</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>破产</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>了,谁来拯救我们?</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>靠自己,考变化,靠发展。只有</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>让每一个中国人获得幸福而有尊严</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的目标不变,其他皆可变。过去三十年,我们就是这样一路走来,也将一路走下去。 实用主义</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>才是中国经济的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>真面目</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>,做好准备迎接改变吧!</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p><FONT size=3>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>凯恩斯主义的</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>伪装</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在欢庆纪元后第二个千禧年的到来时,谁也没有料到,迎接人类的将是一场巨大的金融海啸。这是怎么回事?究竟是谁之过?惊恐之余,人们纷纷翻出昔日的理论和早已被忘却的预言,试图证明人类的智慧尚未退化到不可救药的地步。马克思的《资本论》在东京热卖,哈耶克的《通向奴役之路》在纽约脱销。不同学说受到不同人群的追捧,你、我各执一端,互指他人为肇事者,千方百计地为自己的愚蠢开脱。诸多学派之中,最为流行的,当然是凯恩斯主义。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>大萧条</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年代,是凯恩斯之处了市场失灵的可能性,也是凯恩斯给出了应对之方:增加政府开支,创造有效需求</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'" lang=ZH-CN> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在这个今日天经地义的政策,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">70</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年前确实离经叛道的言论,称它为一场</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>革命</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>,毫不为过。对于凯恩斯的新理论,当时学术界莫衷一是,西方各国政府满腹狐疑。直到</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1933</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年,美国才开始认真演技凯恩斯的主张,也只有到了</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1939</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年,第二次世界大战爆发,大规模的政府开支才具备了政治上的可行性。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>然而,经过记者和专栏作家</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">(</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>例如保罗</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">-</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>克鲁格曼</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的演绎,这段历史变成了如下版本:美国总统罗斯福接受了凯恩斯的建议,于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1933</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年推出</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>新政</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>,结束了长达十年的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>大萧条</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>历史数据告诉我们,美国经济在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1933</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年之后停止萎缩,失业率从</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">25%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的高位回落,但真实</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><A href="http://app.finance.ifeng.com/data/mac/year_idx.php?type=001&amp;symbol=00102" target=_blank><B><SPAN style="COLOR: #004276">GDP</SPAN></B></A></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>则是在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1939</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年才恢复到</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1929</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年的水平,而失业率在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1941</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年才降到个位数。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>军备开支的直线上升的确创造了有效需求,军队的大规模征兵当然也创造了工作岗位,但到底是谁结束了</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>大萧条</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>?罗斯福还是希特勒?我们只能留给历史学家去澄清。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>有意思的是,率先采用凯恩斯政策的是瑞典和纳粹德国,凯恩斯本人当然不愿将后者作为他的案例,在他的讲话和文章中,完全回避了这个最早的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>凯恩斯主义国家</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>凯恩斯经济学的关键假设是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。凯恩斯主义者认为,经济个体可能是非理性的,例如在纯粹心理因素的影响下,消费者和企业忽然悲观起来,对未来失去信心,消费与投资意愿下降,社会有效需求不足,经济因此而陷入衰退。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>由于</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>无逻辑可言,几乎无法对它进行有意义的分析,人们无法改变而只能接受这个现实,并以此为前提,探讨应对之策。如人们所熟知,标准的凯恩斯主义对策就是政府的反向操作,增加财政开始以弥补民间需求的不足,即使不能避免衰退,亦可减少</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>对经济的负面影响。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p><FONT size=3>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN>&nbsp;</P></DIV>
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查看完整版本: 许小年论中国向市场经济转型(一)